Jaguar and Maserati Have a 0.0% Chance of Hitting 250,000 Miles, According to a New Study
A sweeping new study from iSeeCars has delivered a stark verdict on long-term automotive durability: Jaguar, Mini, and Maserati have a statistically zero percent chance of reaching 250,000 miles. The analysis, released September 9, drew on odometer readings from more than 395 million vehicles across 33 brands in the U.S. market — making it one of the most comprehensive high-mileage studies ever conducted.
The findings expose a chasm between Japanese brands and their European luxury counterparts that goes well beyond reputation. Toyota topped the rankings with a 19.7% probability of hitting the quarter-million-mile mark — nearly four times the 5.4% industry average. For buyers weighing badge prestige against the reality of long-term ownership costs, the numbers are difficult to ignore.
Toyota and Honda Lock Out the Top Four Spots
Only five of the 33 brands studied managed to beat the 5.4% overall average, and four of those slots belong to just two corporate families. Toyota’s 19.7% leads comfortably, followed by Lexus at 14.4%, Honda at 13.3%, and Acura at 9.5%. The fifth brand above average is GMC at 5.8% — the only American nameplate to clear the bar, and the only brand outside the Toyota and Honda umbrellas to do so.
The gap between the top four and the rest of the field is significant. iSeeCars Executive Analyst Karl Brauer noted that Toyota, Lexus, Honda, and Acura “don’t just lead the list — they substantially outperform the average vehicle’s chances of reaching that high-mileage threshold.” Mazda came closest to the average at 5.3%, followed by Lincoln at 4.7%, Ram at 4.2%, Ford at 4.1%, and Chevrolet at 3.6%.
European Luxury Brands Cluster at the Bottom
The bottom of the rankings reads like a who’s who of European prestige marques. Maserati, Mini, and Jaguar all recorded 0.0% — meaning iSeeCars found no real-world examples of these brands reaching 250,000 miles in its dataset. Fiat sits just above them at 0.1%, followed by Porsche at 0.3%, Land Rover at 0.4%, and Audi at 0.4%. BMW fared best of the European luxury contingent at 0.5%.
Mercedes-Benz and Volvo were the relative bright spots among European brands, each landing at 2.6%. Cadillac, at 3.9%, outperformed most of its luxury peers and exceeded the luxury segment average of 3.4%. Still, even the best-performing luxury brands sit well below the overall 5.4% average — let alone the territory Toyota occupies.
One notable surprise in the data: Subaru, a brand with a strong reputation for durability, came in at just 2.8% — below Nissan and significantly behind fellow Japanese brands Toyota and Honda.
What the Numbers Actually Mean for Buyers
The study’s methodology is worth understanding before drawing hard conclusions. iSeeCars calculated average odometer readings at each yearly age across its dataset, then built a proprietary statistical model to estimate the probability that a given vehicle would survive to 250,000 miles. Heavy-duty vehicles and models with insufficient data were excluded. Results were weighted by how common each model is on the road, so high-volume sellers carry more influence in a brand’s final score.
That weighting matters. A 0.0% figure for Jaguar or Maserati doesn’t mean every example is destined to fail — it means the study found no statistically meaningful number of those vehicles reaching the milestone in real-world U.S. use. Individual outliers exist at every level of the market. Maintenance history, driving patterns, and climate all play a role in how long any car lasts, and a meticulously maintained European luxury car can far outlast a neglected Japanese one.
What the data does capture is population-level behavior. Luxury vehicles tend to be driven fewer miles per year than mainstream commuter cars, which partly explains their lower scores — a Porsche Boxster covering 8,000 miles a year simply has less opportunity to accumulate 250,000 miles than a Camry doing 15,000. The study also looks only at mileage, not at how many repairs were required along the way. A car that reaches 250,000 miles after $30,000 in repairs tells a different story than one that does it on oil changes alone.
For used-car shoppers, the practical takeaway is straightforward: if longevity and low ownership cost are priorities, the data strongly favors Japanese brands — particularly Toyota and Honda. Buyers drawn to European luxury badges are paying for a different kind of ownership experience, and the long-term mileage odds reflect that trade-off clearly.
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